Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
